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Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Rational decision

Cambridge dictionary gives meaning to rational as " based on facts and not affected by emotion and imagination." Hence the rational decision means a decision taken 1. Is based on facts after verifying them for its correctness 2. Are not affected by the emotions and imagination. Normally decisions taken on rational basis will stand tall during crisis and the failure is rather uncertain. The rational decision taking has become paramount in today's life and it is not only applicable to corporate for their survival and profitability it is equally applicable to individuals. An individual has to take the decisions rationally based on facts and not affected by emotions and imaginations. If we really see whether decisions are taken rationally it is a big no and decisions are taken momentarily and by comparison. These could create a big loss in individual's life and finance. I feel the sectors where the rationality has taken dip now and decisions are taken by the people irrationally are

  1. The job market in IT/ITES sector
  2. The stock market
  3. The real estate The job market in IT/ITES sector has no doubt created huge job opportunity and created wealth to employees. This has caused a situation wherein the people from other sector also looked at IT sector whether they are from civil, mechanical, chemical engineering etc or people from other discipline like accountant, dentist. Nowadays everyone is looking at the opportunities in IT sector irrespective of their back grounds. The IT Companies started recruiting the BA/ B.Sc graduates in big way to cut costs. The difference between professional degrees from other degrees is that they require specialized form of training to understand and undertake the job. For e.g., to construct a dam or building is a specialized form of activity and a civil engineer is the best suited to perform that job. If everybody with some month of training can join IT sector and become software engineer then what is the difference between the four years of study they did in comparison to few month of study done by others. Here the question of rationality comes and the decisions by other professionals are rational?
    The Indian stock market also performing in peculiar way and within a period of one year, the BSE SENSEX has reached a level of 20000 from 10000 a year back. Though the Indian growth story continues whether the rise in the stock market level is justified is the big debate going on in the financial world. The market is not rising based on the growth earning and profit of the companies. The market has gone beyond the level of such fundamentals and is chased by dollar inflows from FIIs. The rationality in the market has gone and it will take some time for the rationality to return.
    Similarly the other sector where the rationality has taken a beating is the real estate. The price of the neighborhood which was commanding a price of few lakhs is now commanding a price of crore. The price hike is not supported by any infrastructure development and the situation has only worsened with clogged roads, power cuts and erratic water supply. Still the prices are raising and the rationality of price hike is not known. As the saying in stock market goes " the bulls and bears make money only the pigs gets slaughtered" is true and the individuals are the worst sufferers in such a situation.
    Now is the best time to take rational decisions.

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